Robert Rubin reports that Keynes once reportedly said: markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
LTCM forgot that.
octubre 12, 2004
Two other books I picked up
Two other books I pick up that are tangential to LTCM are Robert Rubin's recently published memoir and Michael Lewis' Moneyball.
I didn't realize all three were related when I picked them up. Lewis dealt with Meriweather -- head of LTCM -- in his first book Liar's Poker, while Rubin was part of Clinton's team that seemingly bailed out anyone and everyone, including LTCM.
I didn't realize all three were related when I picked them up. Lewis dealt with Meriweather -- head of LTCM -- in his first book Liar's Poker, while Rubin was part of Clinton's team that seemingly bailed out anyone and everyone, including LTCM.
Long Term Capital Management
Last night I read Roger Lowenstein's book on the rise and fall of Long Term Capital Management. I didn't intend to, but I started it and I couldn't put it down.
Long Term Capital Management was a hedge fund started by former Salomon Arbitrage Group head John Meriweather. Meriweather was one of the stars of Michael Lewis' Liars Poker, a book about the author's years at Salomon.
Frankly, the book -- especially the beginning -- made me want to go work for a hedge fund. I've emailed some friends with some questions, so we'll see where this takes me. I've dabbled in the market before, but I'm a bit of a dilettante.
Anyway, Meriweather was a bond trader at Salomon who became a partner by buying out someone else's big risk and then having that risk pan out well. He eventually recruited academics to Salomon, who brought financial models with them and relied heavily on the models. The academics were a big success, and Meriweather ran a loose ship at Salomon. He gave his former academics free reign, and eventually a rogue trader caused him trouble with the SEC.
After a 3 month suspension of his license, Meriweather started his own hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management. He brought along his most of his old Salomon group. These guys were very loyal to him, and all very big names. They were able to raise $1.25 billion, and started with a leverage to assets ratio of 30. Their goal: exploit market inefficiences wherever they found them.
They did very well, running that $1.25 billion way up, to the point where they had to give money back to their original investors. Eventually though, they took some foolish risks and went broke. The fall of LTCM is much less interesting than the rise -- they had to get the Fed Reserve to push 25 Wall Street banks to bail them out.
Meriweather and group are now in a new hedge fund. If at first you don't succeed...well, in this case start a new hedge fund and raise $250 million.
Fascinating story. I imagine this will inspire some other posts.
Long Term Capital Management was a hedge fund started by former Salomon Arbitrage Group head John Meriweather. Meriweather was one of the stars of Michael Lewis' Liars Poker, a book about the author's years at Salomon.
Frankly, the book -- especially the beginning -- made me want to go work for a hedge fund. I've emailed some friends with some questions, so we'll see where this takes me. I've dabbled in the market before, but I'm a bit of a dilettante.
Anyway, Meriweather was a bond trader at Salomon who became a partner by buying out someone else's big risk and then having that risk pan out well. He eventually recruited academics to Salomon, who brought financial models with them and relied heavily on the models. The academics were a big success, and Meriweather ran a loose ship at Salomon. He gave his former academics free reign, and eventually a rogue trader caused him trouble with the SEC.
After a 3 month suspension of his license, Meriweather started his own hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management. He brought along his most of his old Salomon group. These guys were very loyal to him, and all very big names. They were able to raise $1.25 billion, and started with a leverage to assets ratio of 30. Their goal: exploit market inefficiences wherever they found them.
They did very well, running that $1.25 billion way up, to the point where they had to give money back to their original investors. Eventually though, they took some foolish risks and went broke. The fall of LTCM is much less interesting than the rise -- they had to get the Fed Reserve to push 25 Wall Street banks to bail them out.
Meriweather and group are now in a new hedge fund. If at first you don't succeed...well, in this case start a new hedge fund and raise $250 million.
Fascinating story. I imagine this will inspire some other posts.
octubre 11, 2004
Clutch City! Bring on the Cards!
The Houston Astros win their first series!
Yeah, the franchise is 43 years old, but it's still sweet. It was the deciding game, the Braves had narrowed the game to a 1 run lead...and then the Astros scored 9 consecutive runs.
The Killer B's -- Beltran, Bagwell, Biggio and Berkman -- were all clutch. Beltran had 5 RBIs and homered on two consecutive at bats.
I'm not much of a baseball fan, but it's exciting to see the Astros play the Cards. The Astros are really a feel good story right now -- written off for dead, they ended the season 36-10 to squeak into the playoffs.
And the Yankees are playing the RedSox. That's an intense rivalry. Having been to Boston around the beginning of the season, it was amazing to me how intensely Bostonians loved their RedSox.
Yeah, the franchise is 43 years old, but it's still sweet. It was the deciding game, the Braves had narrowed the game to a 1 run lead...and then the Astros scored 9 consecutive runs.
The Killer B's -- Beltran, Bagwell, Biggio and Berkman -- were all clutch. Beltran had 5 RBIs and homered on two consecutive at bats.
I'm not much of a baseball fan, but it's exciting to see the Astros play the Cards. The Astros are really a feel good story right now -- written off for dead, they ended the season 36-10 to squeak into the playoffs.
And the Yankees are playing the RedSox. That's an intense rivalry. Having been to Boston around the beginning of the season, it was amazing to me how intensely Bostonians loved their RedSox.
octubre 10, 2004
Go Astros!
The Houston Astros beat the Atlanta Braves on Saturday, setting the stage for Sunday's game. It's a chance for the Astros to win their first playoff series in franchise history.
Go Astros!
Go Astros!
The presidential campaign signs
John Moore posts about Scott Dadrich's New York Times editorial. Dadich admits that, while he's a Democrat, Bush's campaign logo is much better, while the "Kerry logo displays the same inconsistency that his opponents accuse him of. . . No wonder some voters think he's a vacillating wimp."
Kerry's signs really are bad. Of course, in a presidential campaign the signs aren't as important -- in lesser races, yard signs are a primary way to raise a candidate's name ID -- but they are many voters' daily exposure to
Ouch. Of course, it's even worse when he spent four weeks mulling that logo.
Kerry's signs really are bad. Of course, in a presidential campaign the signs aren't as important -- in lesser races, yard signs are a primary way to raise a candidate's name ID -- but they are many voters' daily exposure to
Ouch. Of course, it's even worse when he spent four weeks mulling that logo.
octubre 08, 2004
Novel blogging
Director Mitch is writing a novel.
It'd be hard to do, but it'd be a great marketing ploy to write the novel each day as a blog post. Considering how hot blogs are in the media right now, that's a surefire way to get attention.
It'd be hard to do, but it'd be a great marketing ploy to write the novel each day as a blog post. Considering how hot blogs are in the media right now, that's a surefire way to get attention.
octubre 07, 2004
DQ
Katharine Stone writes about Dairy Queen's attempt to rebrand itself as DQ -- a slightly more upscale brand that is known for food, not just blizzards.
Stone writes:
He opened the store in a growing fringe of suburb where there weren't any established fast food chains in the immediate vicinity. The store was new and always bright and clean. In other words, not your typical DQ. Typical Dairy Queens in my experience tend to be old, kinda dark and dirty -- especially the bathrooms.
Customers felt comfortable buying food there. I tried the food a few times, and it was actually quite good. Some of it was better than McDonalds.
I think that's one of the answers to rebranding: work with your franchisees to change the feel of your stores. A bright, clean store will make customers more comfortable buying food, and happier to eat the food in-store.
Sidenote 1: DQ is a very common occurrence in small town Texas. I'm not sure why, but it seems like every small town has one. Probably it has -- or used to have -- low franchising fees. Either that or Texans just like ice cream.
Sidenote 2: I'll also note that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns Dairy Queen. You'd have a great track record if you always invested in the same business Buffett does.
Stone writes:
We probably pile into the car once a month for strawberry shakes (for my son and husband, who insist they're better than you can get anywhere else) and a double Snickers Blizzard for me. But you couldn't get me to buy food in that place on a bet. I have no interest in whatever food DQ has to offer unless that food is made from cream and sugar and is -16 degrees C (the typical serving temperature of ice cream, in case you were wondering -- and yes, I had to look that up).She then goes on to ask:
If you were going to reposition Dairy Queen, or DQ as I understand they now prefer to call it, what would you do?A friend of mine's father retired a few years ago, and took his lump sum pension to open up a DQ.
He opened the store in a growing fringe of suburb where there weren't any established fast food chains in the immediate vicinity. The store was new and always bright and clean. In other words, not your typical DQ. Typical Dairy Queens in my experience tend to be old, kinda dark and dirty -- especially the bathrooms.
Customers felt comfortable buying food there. I tried the food a few times, and it was actually quite good. Some of it was better than McDonalds.
I think that's one of the answers to rebranding: work with your franchisees to change the feel of your stores. A bright, clean store will make customers more comfortable buying food, and happier to eat the food in-store.
Sidenote 1: DQ is a very common occurrence in small town Texas. I'm not sure why, but it seems like every small town has one. Probably it has -- or used to have -- low franchising fees. Either that or Texans just like ice cream.
Sidenote 2: I'll also note that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway owns Dairy Queen. You'd have a great track record if you always invested in the same business Buffett does.
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