abril 01, 2010
marzo 31, 2010
Arsenal vs Barcelona, leg 1
Thoughts on Arsenal vs Barcelona, first leg in Emirates Stadium in London.
It was an excellent game of attacking football, as predicted. At one point, Barca had 70% possession, but Arsenal turned that around towards the end.
With 2 away goals, Barcelona is obviously in very good position to advance going into the second leg at home. However, given that they were up 2-0 and at that point should've been a near-lock to advance...but you know that neither of these teams will ever abandon their desire to attack.
1. Almuria. He had an excellent first half, and I was thinking, "wow, Almunia is really answering his critics for Arsene Wenger." But the first goal to start the second half was arguably his fault entirely. It's not a howler, but do you think Victor Valdes or any other topflight keeper concedes a goal there?
2. Wenger. It's trendy to say that his weakness is refusal to care too much about goalkeeping. I can't say I disagree; I think there are some excellent keepers he could buy relatively cheaply (Americans, even!). BUT, his introduction of Walcott into the game changed the match. He won the battle of tactics with Guardiola. The substition of Thierry Henry for Zlatan Ibrahimovic was similarly silly. Henry was sluggish and ineffective. Whatever Guardiola was going for, it didn't work.
Walcott brings a ton of value as a supersub because he can just outrun people, especially when tired. To be honest, I think Wenger planned it out that way, taking off Sagna with 25 minutes left to play. Taking off Arshavin was unusual, but also a substitution that changed the game. Until then, Barca was dominating. Afterwards, much less.
3. The penalty kick. My favorite team in Spain is Barcelona and my favorite team in England is Arsenal. So I'm relatively unbiased when I say this: I don't agree with a penalty kick. And even if so, with a red card? No.
Puyol was in position, and was running for the ball too. He didn't stick out his hip or anything, and while Fabregas was winding up, he took position. In my opinion that is just good defending. That said, it is the referee's judgment call, and I don't think it was a horrible call. It was certainly within realm of debate, though I think probably 80-85% of neutral people would say it wasn't a foul.
I understand that the red card was also given, but I simply disagree with that strongly. Technical assertions of the rules in that spot are a grave error. It was certainly not a tackle-from-behind on a breakway, done intentionally to stop a goal.
4. Zlatan Ibrahimovic. He had two goals, but he could have had 6. His finish on the first goal was nice, although it was an ill-considered challenge by Almunia. Frankly, he could have had about 3 in the first 10 minutes. Ibrahimovic's second goal was ok, he was one on one, so it's hard to fault Almunia. On the other hand, Almunia stuck himself in no man's land when Ibrahimovic cut down his angle. And Ibra has a tendency to try to roof shots near post in situations like that. Good football teams should have people who prepare them for tendencies. I don't really like how Ibrahimovic played it. He was one on one but cut down his angle (a huge no-no for goalscorers) and then wound up. Basically, he decided to gamble by blasting away. In that situation, with time, the best play is generally to just slot the ball where the goalie is not. And if they go down, then go around them.
5. Xavi is a great through-ball player.
So, in the next match, Fabregas (and someone else I think) won't be playing for Arsenal. That hurts, as Fabregas is their creative spark plug. However, Carlos Puyol and Gerard Pique will be out for Barcelona. Losing both central defenders is pretty key for a club that has been very thin on defenders this year. In truth, the only reason Madrid is in the title race is that Barca lost/tied some games this year when they were playing third-choice defenders.
That will certainly add a risk factor that will make it possible for Arsenal to get an early goal. Even so, Barcelona showed itself today to be the superior team, and even if Arsenal should get an early goal, it's doubtful that they would change their style and attempt to win ugly by defending.
Barcelona and Arsenal in the Nou Camp will be a spectacle.
It was an excellent game of attacking football, as predicted. At one point, Barca had 70% possession, but Arsenal turned that around towards the end.
With 2 away goals, Barcelona is obviously in very good position to advance going into the second leg at home. However, given that they were up 2-0 and at that point should've been a near-lock to advance...but you know that neither of these teams will ever abandon their desire to attack.
1. Almuria. He had an excellent first half, and I was thinking, "wow, Almunia is really answering his critics for Arsene Wenger." But the first goal to start the second half was arguably his fault entirely. It's not a howler, but do you think Victor Valdes or any other topflight keeper concedes a goal there?
2. Wenger. It's trendy to say that his weakness is refusal to care too much about goalkeeping. I can't say I disagree; I think there are some excellent keepers he could buy relatively cheaply (Americans, even!). BUT, his introduction of Walcott into the game changed the match. He won the battle of tactics with Guardiola. The substition of Thierry Henry for Zlatan Ibrahimovic was similarly silly. Henry was sluggish and ineffective. Whatever Guardiola was going for, it didn't work.
Walcott brings a ton of value as a supersub because he can just outrun people, especially when tired. To be honest, I think Wenger planned it out that way, taking off Sagna with 25 minutes left to play. Taking off Arshavin was unusual, but also a substitution that changed the game. Until then, Barca was dominating. Afterwards, much less.
3. The penalty kick. My favorite team in Spain is Barcelona and my favorite team in England is Arsenal. So I'm relatively unbiased when I say this: I don't agree with a penalty kick. And even if so, with a red card? No.
Puyol was in position, and was running for the ball too. He didn't stick out his hip or anything, and while Fabregas was winding up, he took position. In my opinion that is just good defending. That said, it is the referee's judgment call, and I don't think it was a horrible call. It was certainly within realm of debate, though I think probably 80-85% of neutral people would say it wasn't a foul.
I understand that the red card was also given, but I simply disagree with that strongly. Technical assertions of the rules in that spot are a grave error. It was certainly not a tackle-from-behind on a breakway, done intentionally to stop a goal.
4. Zlatan Ibrahimovic. He had two goals, but he could have had 6. His finish on the first goal was nice, although it was an ill-considered challenge by Almunia. Frankly, he could have had about 3 in the first 10 minutes. Ibrahimovic's second goal was ok, he was one on one, so it's hard to fault Almunia. On the other hand, Almunia stuck himself in no man's land when Ibrahimovic cut down his angle. And Ibra has a tendency to try to roof shots near post in situations like that. Good football teams should have people who prepare them for tendencies. I don't really like how Ibrahimovic played it. He was one on one but cut down his angle (a huge no-no for goalscorers) and then wound up. Basically, he decided to gamble by blasting away. In that situation, with time, the best play is generally to just slot the ball where the goalie is not. And if they go down, then go around them.
5. Xavi is a great through-ball player.
So, in the next match, Fabregas (and someone else I think) won't be playing for Arsenal. That hurts, as Fabregas is their creative spark plug. However, Carlos Puyol and Gerard Pique will be out for Barcelona. Losing both central defenders is pretty key for a club that has been very thin on defenders this year. In truth, the only reason Madrid is in the title race is that Barca lost/tied some games this year when they were playing third-choice defenders.
That will certainly add a risk factor that will make it possible for Arsenal to get an early goal. Even so, Barcelona showed itself today to be the superior team, and even if Arsenal should get an early goal, it's doubtful that they would change their style and attempt to win ugly by defending.
Barcelona and Arsenal in the Nou Camp will be a spectacle.
Louis Van Gaal's proposed football rule changes
Bayern manager Louis Van Gaal would:
1. Position the lineman differently, on the corner flag so they can see when the ball is kicked without moving their heads.
2. Alternately, 2 referees on the field and one watching electronically.
3. Throw-ins should become kick-ins.
4. Instead of 90 running minutes, it would be 70 minutes of ball-in-play.
5. Mandated artificial turf so that all surfaces are consistent.
6. Instead of penalty-kick shootouts, take one man off the pitch every 5 minutes until it is 6 v 6.
7. Goal-line technology to see whether the ball crossed.
I applaud his thinking. There's the problem however, that if adopted you are essentially creating rules for the elite matches that don't match the rules for second division matches and all amateur matchecs.
Number 3: Making throw-ins kick-ins is interesting, but radically changes the game. Instead of kicking the ball out of bounds for a throw in, defenses will now have a much stronger incentive to keep the ball in play. That means that long-balls will be played more, which will spread out the field. That may actually increase scoring, not sure. But it would be a different game. Funny how such a small change would have such a large effect.
Number 2: I think having referees watch electronically is crucial, especially in the World Cup (maybe in Champions League too). The last World Cup had some hideous hideous reffing, especially that Russian guy's Hindenberg-like performance in Holland v. Portugal.
Number 4: Eh. I don't mind this, and it wouldn't be as bad as basketball's end of game problems. Still, it doesn't seem necessary, though it would take remove some of the arbitrariness of the game from being dependent on the referee.
Number 5: This just isn't going to happen. I know it is frustrating when you are the better team to get your skill edge removed because the playing surface is poor, but this seems like an over-reaction.
Number 6: I think this is a good idea, although it would change the game a little bit, in that endurance would now be more prized in tournaments where this might be used. Still, it would do away with penalty kicks, which is a change any real football fan should be happy with.
Number 7: Goal line technology is too expensive. Outside of the World Cup, where it might make sense (though I'd rather just use video replay), it isn't worth it.
1. Position the lineman differently, on the corner flag so they can see when the ball is kicked without moving their heads.
2. Alternately, 2 referees on the field and one watching electronically.
3. Throw-ins should become kick-ins.
4. Instead of 90 running minutes, it would be 70 minutes of ball-in-play.
5. Mandated artificial turf so that all surfaces are consistent.
6. Instead of penalty-kick shootouts, take one man off the pitch every 5 minutes until it is 6 v 6.
7. Goal-line technology to see whether the ball crossed.
I applaud his thinking. There's the problem however, that if adopted you are essentially creating rules for the elite matches that don't match the rules for second division matches and all amateur matchecs.
Number 3: Making throw-ins kick-ins is interesting, but radically changes the game. Instead of kicking the ball out of bounds for a throw in, defenses will now have a much stronger incentive to keep the ball in play. That means that long-balls will be played more, which will spread out the field. That may actually increase scoring, not sure. But it would be a different game. Funny how such a small change would have such a large effect.
Number 2: I think having referees watch electronically is crucial, especially in the World Cup (maybe in Champions League too). The last World Cup had some hideous hideous reffing, especially that Russian guy's Hindenberg-like performance in Holland v. Portugal.
Number 4: Eh. I don't mind this, and it wouldn't be as bad as basketball's end of game problems. Still, it doesn't seem necessary, though it would take remove some of the arbitrariness of the game from being dependent on the referee.
Number 5: This just isn't going to happen. I know it is frustrating when you are the better team to get your skill edge removed because the playing surface is poor, but this seems like an over-reaction.
Number 6: I think this is a good idea, although it would change the game a little bit, in that endurance would now be more prized in tournaments where this might be used. Still, it would do away with penalty kicks, which is a change any real football fan should be happy with.
Number 7: Goal line technology is too expensive. Outside of the World Cup, where it might make sense (though I'd rather just use video replay), it isn't worth it.
Champions League games today
Some huge games today. Arsenal v Barcelona in a rematch of the Champions League final from 4 years ago -- but this time with Thierry Henry featuring for Barcelona and not his beloved Arsenal -- and also the two clubs who play the most stylish football in the world at the moment. They both play posession football.
Watching Leo Messi will be interesting, as he is one of the Barca players who is more careless with the ball. He is definitely not afraid to take risks, which is generally fine for a striker. But
Inter v. CSKA Moscow will also be a pretty good game. Diego Milito and Samuel Eto'o are both fairly in form, yet Moscow looks dangerous.
Watching Leo Messi will be interesting, as he is one of the Barca players who is more careless with the ball. He is definitely not afraid to take risks, which is generally fine for a striker. But
Inter v. CSKA Moscow will also be a pretty good game. Diego Milito and Samuel Eto'o are both fairly in form, yet Moscow looks dangerous.
marzo 30, 2010
Jose Mourinho is not happy, but where will he go?
At pretty much every opportunity, he talks about wanting to leave Italian football. Just the other day he said explicitly, "I am not happy in Italian football." So where will he land?
You sorta have to assume that he won't stay in Italy, and won't go to Germany. So that leaves England and Spain. Assume he will only go to one of the biggest soccer clubs in the world, which I think is fair, as he's shown he has an ego.
In Spain, that leaves Real Madrid and Barcelona. Yes, there are some other clubs, but they are dwarfed by the big 2. Barcelona's job will be held by Pep Guardiola until he doesn't want it. But they are super committed to attacking, and Mourinho is a little more tactical. Madrid's job could be open, as they crashed out of the Champions League already. If they don't win
In England, Chelsea, Manchester United, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal are probably the clubs Mourinho would deem as worthy of him. Man U won't be open until Sir Alex Ferguson decides to retire, and put me in the camp that doesn't seem him retiring soon. Arsenal won't kick Wenger out, as they play the 2nd most stylish football in the world. Chelsea seems unlikely since Abramovich fired him a few years ago, although Mourinho said nice things after he brilliantly defeated them a few weeks ago in the Champions League. I think Chelsea is a very outside chance.
So I think it comes down to Liverpool, Man City, and Real Madrid. I think that if Madrid manages to win La Liga, Pellegrini will be retained. I can't guarantee it, but I think so. Liverpool and Man City are fighting for the 4th spot in the English Premier League, though Tottenham could take it as well, as they have some very quality players -- Wilson Palacios, Defoe, Peter Crouch.
Rafael Beniten is under pressure at Liverpool. Somehow, and perhaps I am crazy, I still think Liverpool is not crazy enough to fire him. Liverpool may be the biggest club in the world historically, so I think they aren't too happy right now. Even so, they've been unlucky with injuries, Benitez has been a little limited in the transfer budget, so I think Liverpool will hold on to him. Of course, if Liverpool does fire him, I think Madrid might furtively interview Benitez even if Real wins La Liga.
As for Man City, after buying Carloz Tevez, Gareth Barry, Emmanuel Adebayor, etc, if they don't get into the Champions League, one has to think that they might fire Roberto Mancini.
To be completely honest, I think there's a very good chance we see Jose Mourinho at Real Madrid, Liverpool or Manchester City within the next 2 years.
You sorta have to assume that he won't stay in Italy, and won't go to Germany. So that leaves England and Spain. Assume he will only go to one of the biggest soccer clubs in the world, which I think is fair, as he's shown he has an ego.
In Spain, that leaves Real Madrid and Barcelona. Yes, there are some other clubs, but they are dwarfed by the big 2. Barcelona's job will be held by Pep Guardiola until he doesn't want it. But they are super committed to attacking, and Mourinho is a little more tactical. Madrid's job could be open, as they crashed out of the Champions League already. If they don't win
In England, Chelsea, Manchester United, Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal are probably the clubs Mourinho would deem as worthy of him. Man U won't be open until Sir Alex Ferguson decides to retire, and put me in the camp that doesn't seem him retiring soon. Arsenal won't kick Wenger out, as they play the 2nd most stylish football in the world. Chelsea seems unlikely since Abramovich fired him a few years ago, although Mourinho said nice things after he brilliantly defeated them a few weeks ago in the Champions League. I think Chelsea is a very outside chance.
So I think it comes down to Liverpool, Man City, and Real Madrid. I think that if Madrid manages to win La Liga, Pellegrini will be retained. I can't guarantee it, but I think so. Liverpool and Man City are fighting for the 4th spot in the English Premier League, though Tottenham could take it as well, as they have some very quality players -- Wilson Palacios, Defoe, Peter Crouch.
Rafael Beniten is under pressure at Liverpool. Somehow, and perhaps I am crazy, I still think Liverpool is not crazy enough to fire him. Liverpool may be the biggest club in the world historically, so I think they aren't too happy right now. Even so, they've been unlucky with injuries, Benitez has been a little limited in the transfer budget, so I think Liverpool will hold on to him. Of course, if Liverpool does fire him, I think Madrid might furtively interview Benitez even if Real wins La Liga.
As for Man City, after buying Carloz Tevez, Gareth Barry, Emmanuel Adebayor, etc, if they don't get into the Champions League, one has to think that they might fire Roberto Mancini.
To be completely honest, I think there's a very good chance we see Jose Mourinho at Real Madrid, Liverpool or Manchester City within the next 2 years.
marzo 29, 2010
marzo 27, 2010
marzo 18, 2010
diciembre 28, 2009
raro mí estómago
Me siento un poco enfermo. No sé, a veces cuando viajo internacionalmente, mi estómago se pone molestado. Y aunque ya volví de Brasil hace 10 dias o algo así, sigo un poco menos que ideal.
Trato tomar un poco de vino a calmar la tormenta adentro. Hasta ahora, no funciona...o funciona pero solo por un rato.
Trato tomar un poco de vino a calmar la tormenta adentro. Hasta ahora, no funciona...o funciona pero solo por un rato.
noviembre 21, 2009
chau, capital federal
Hoy me mudo a la provincia de Buenos Aires. O sea, seré bonarense, supongo. capital, te voy a extrañar.
marzo 18, 2009
que los cumplas feliz
Un muy feliz cumpleaños para. Estoy en los Buenos Aires de Argentina. Y sí eso es medio chiste. No sé que sea gracioso porque el humor es distinto en otro idioma.
abril 28, 2008
voy a la escuela
Hago el gran comienzo a aprender el idioma. Vemos como me pasa. Por fin encontré una escuela.
marzo 18, 2008
marzo 18, 2007
enero 07, 2007
hace cuatro años
Oye! Hace cuatro años y terminaba mis estudios en la facultad. y que hice...verdad no parece tanto. siempre una idea nueva, pero ninguna funcionó. odié la facultad de derecho, es un error total. casi empecé negocios, y sí comenze con una, pero sin mucho éxito. ya soy consultador, pero ya no me gusta tanto. mas o menos me mentian. me dijeron que había muchíssimo trabajo y por eso yo tuviera muchas oportunidades a avanzar. supongo que ellos tenían la ilusíon que trabajo venía. pero no vino. y que desastre para mí porque la única razón estar en esta consultadora es un avanzo mas rapído.
noviembre 18, 2006
Medellin Colombia
Quizas que me mude a Colombia? ¿Que le parece a usted? El tema de usted y tú me asusta, de verdad.
marzo 18, 2006
enero 14, 2006
enero 12, 2006
Confessions of a Venture Capitalist -- Ruthann Quindlen
I just finished "Confessions of a Venture Capitalist: Inside the High-Stakes World of Start-up Financing" by Ruthann Quindlen. My reaction: uh, ok.
Who was the target market for this book? It's not really a primer in pitching to venture capitalists, though it pretends to be at times.
It's not a memoir, though she talks about her self in quite a few chapters.
It's not really an in-depth case study to the point where you really feel like you are provoked to think.
I wasn't impressed. Quindlen is probably a great venture capitalist. Indeed, she talked about lots of her own successful deals (despite a foreward/introduction claiming that she would only talk about the unsuccessful ones). But what did I take away from this book? Very little.
If I just wanted general info on venture capitalists in Silicon Valley, how they think, etc, there are better resources.
This book should have been published in blog form. All of those cute little two page vigniettes would have been very interesting in a blog.
Who was the target market for this book? It's not really a primer in pitching to venture capitalists, though it pretends to be at times.
It's not a memoir, though she talks about her self in quite a few chapters.
It's not really an in-depth case study to the point where you really feel like you are provoked to think.
I wasn't impressed. Quindlen is probably a great venture capitalist. Indeed, she talked about lots of her own successful deals (despite a foreward/introduction claiming that she would only talk about the unsuccessful ones). But what did I take away from this book? Very little.
If I just wanted general info on venture capitalists in Silicon Valley, how they think, etc, there are better resources.
This book should have been published in blog form. All of those cute little two page vigniettes would have been very interesting in a blog.
enero 05, 2006
FSBO Madison
the New York Times:
This is the future. The 6% that realtors have been raking in is what economists call "economic rent." And it's a bad thing. Economic rent is basically when consumers are paying more than they should be because of a lack of competition.
Real estate agents simply collect more than they should, and somehow the market hasn't yet adjusted. But it will.
Across the country, the National Association of Realtors and the 6 percent commission that most of its members charge to sell a house are under assault by government officials, consumer advocates, lawyers and ambitious entrepreneurs. But the most effective challenge so far emanates from a spare bedroom in the modest home here of Christie Miller.
Ms. Miller, 38, a former social worker who favors fuzzy slippers, and her cousin, Mary Clare Murphy, 51, operate what real estate professionals believe to be the largest for-sale-by-owner Web site in the country.
They have turned Madison, a city of 208,000 known for its liberal politics, into one of the most active for-sale-by-owner markets in the country. And their success suggests that, in challenging the Realtor association's dominance of home sales, they may have hit on a winning formula that has eluded many other upstarts. Their site, FsboMadison.com (pronounced FIZZ-boh) holds a nearly 20 percent share of the Dane County market for residential real estate listings.
The site, which charges just $150 to list a home and throws in a teal blue yard sign, draws more Internet traffic than the traditional multiple listing service controlled by real estate agents.
Madison is home to the University of Wisconsin and a city where the percentage of residents who graduated from college is twice the national level. It is also a hotbed of antibusiness sentiment, which turns out to be the perfect place for a free-market real estate revolution. Bucking the system is a civic pastime here.
Elsewhere, the Justice Department, free-market scholars, plaintiffs' lawyers and countless entrepreneurs are vowing to make real estate more competitive and to bring down sales commissions. To do that, they advocate forcing the Realtors' association to share control of its established listing services. Those critics seem to view the listings as an unassailable monopoly.
And who can blame them? Those 800-plus local listing services, controlled by local branches of the Realtors' association, help dole out about $60 billion a year in commissions to real estate agents and the firms that employ them. Despite numerous attacks, the association has been remarkably successful to date at protecting its turf. Through lobbying, litigation and legislation, the Realtors' group has managed to keep control of the crucial listings.
Ms. Miller and Ms. Murphy, however, built a separate and alternative listing service - a parallel market, much like the Nasdaq, which rose in recent decades to challenge the New York Stock Exchange's dominance and sparked competition that eventually reduced transaction costs for all stock investors.
The price competition is startling. FsboMadison listed about 2,000 homes in 2005 and said that about 72 percent of its listings sell. If those 1,440 houses averaged $200,000 per sale, the real estate commissions under the 6 percent system would have been about $17.3 million. Ms. Miller and Ms. Murphy collected about $300,000.
...
William A. Black, a lawyer for the Wisconsin Department of Regulation and Licensing, says he does not think consumers who bypass real estate agents are missing much. "The majority of residential transactions are very simple: 99 percent can be done without a broker. And the 1 percent screwed up - the broker couldn't have prevented it."
Alternative listing services would need to reach a combined 50 percent to 60 percent of a market to topple a multiple listing service, Steve Murray, an industry consultant, guessed.
That is what David B. Zwiefelhofer, Webmaster for FsboMadison, would like to see, and he constantly encourages Ms. Miller and Ms. Murphy to expand. "I think this is the one place in the country where FSBO could overtake" the multiple listing service, he said.
His clients, not surprisingly for a social worker and a nurse, are embarrassed by their success, Mr. Zwiefelhofer said. "It bugs me to no end," he said. "The Web site still looks like it was designed by some high school student five years ago."
This is the future. The 6% that realtors have been raking in is what economists call "economic rent." And it's a bad thing. Economic rent is basically when consumers are paying more than they should be because of a lack of competition.
Real estate agents simply collect more than they should, and somehow the market hasn't yet adjusted. But it will.
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