septiembre 06, 2004
DC Real Estate
It's a good time to be a real estate owner in the DC area. The Capital area has been growing so quickly for so long that the real estate market is red hot.
Even the spot in question in the article was in a bad neighborhood not too long ago. Since the MCI center opened, however, the neighborhood is getting much nicer.
It is an interesting question though: is there a bubble in the DC real estate market right now? If so, when will it pop?
My take: yes, there's a bit of a bubble, but I don't think it will pop. I think the real estate appreciation is reasonable considering the likely continued growth of the area. There's also the substantial immigrant communities in DC which are likely to continue their rapid growth -- particularly the Latino communities. Interestingly, last year the candidates for president of a Latin American country (Salvador?) both came to the DC area to campaign.
Even the spot in question in the article was in a bad neighborhood not too long ago. Since the MCI center opened, however, the neighborhood is getting much nicer.
It is an interesting question though: is there a bubble in the DC real estate market right now? If so, when will it pop?
My take: yes, there's a bit of a bubble, but I don't think it will pop. I think the real estate appreciation is reasonable considering the likely continued growth of the area. There's also the substantial immigrant communities in DC which are likely to continue their rapid growth -- particularly the Latino communities. Interestingly, last year the candidates for president of a Latin American country (Salvador?) both came to the DC area to campaign.
Poker and business
It seems as though the WashingtonPost has discovered poker.
The article opens with the standard "old media discovers the latest fad" information. We learn that poker is really hot and very hip these days. Which basically you know if you talk to anyone under 40. Then it discusses the twin growth engines of poker: the impact of the World Poker Tour and the internet offering an expanded opportunity to play poker. The article ends with the standard media warning about problem gambling.
A few notes on the article:
It's relatively easy to open up your own site. Some of the lesser known sites will let you have your own site -- you take care of the branding and marketing, and they run the servers and customer service for a percentage of the profits. I actually thought about doing this, but decided I'd rather make a fortune a more reputable way.
I know some people run underground games and make a fortune off of them. Again, I chose not to do this, as it's illegal, but it's only a misdemeanor, and you can usually get it plead down. Sure, it's a little bit like something you'd see on the Sopranos, but very good money can be made this way.
One reputable way to possibly make money off the poker boom (besides learning how to play and then playing) is to invest in the World Poker Tour. The WPT just went public recently and trades on the NASDAQ. I'd been planning to check out the WPT after the IPO. I still may buy some shares, but I'm wary. I'm already getting bored of the WPT, and that seems to be a common trait among those of us who play frequently. There's definitely plenty of possible growth for the WPT (eg, moving to a better known channel), but on the other hand, there's no suspense towards the end. You always know when the last hand will be, because the episode is almost over.
Poker is a great game, in some ways a metaphor for life. To be a good poker player, you'll need many of the same skills necessary for business. It can take awhile to learn how to play well, just like in business. You'll probably fail at first. You need to master many of the concepts, learn some basic odds (implied odds, effective odds, reverse implied odds, etc), and develop the experience necessary for intuition. You need to be good at gathering lots of information that you can synthesize and make a quick decision with.
I think I've rambled about poker enough for now.
The article opens with the standard "old media discovers the latest fad" information. We learn that poker is really hot and very hip these days. Which basically you know if you talk to anyone under 40. Then it discusses the twin growth engines of poker: the impact of the World Poker Tour and the internet offering an expanded opportunity to play poker. The article ends with the standard media warning about problem gambling.
A few notes on the article:
1. When poker is hot enough for the Washington Post to report on it, it makes me wonder whether poker's popularity has crested.There are still new sites opening up that are attempting to get a piece of the action. Some even offer the chance to play against well known tournament pros.
2. Annie Duke is not the only tutor Ben Affleck has had.
3. PokerRoom makes $4 million profit? Interesting.
4. PartyPoker/EmpirePoker (the largest site) is estimated to make $100-$200 million. Some of us have estimated even higher than $200 million.
It's relatively easy to open up your own site. Some of the lesser known sites will let you have your own site -- you take care of the branding and marketing, and they run the servers and customer service for a percentage of the profits. I actually thought about doing this, but decided I'd rather make a fortune a more reputable way.
I know some people run underground games and make a fortune off of them. Again, I chose not to do this, as it's illegal, but it's only a misdemeanor, and you can usually get it plead down. Sure, it's a little bit like something you'd see on the Sopranos, but very good money can be made this way.
One reputable way to possibly make money off the poker boom (besides learning how to play and then playing) is to invest in the World Poker Tour. The WPT just went public recently and trades on the NASDAQ. I'd been planning to check out the WPT after the IPO. I still may buy some shares, but I'm wary. I'm already getting bored of the WPT, and that seems to be a common trait among those of us who play frequently. There's definitely plenty of possible growth for the WPT (eg, moving to a better known channel), but on the other hand, there's no suspense towards the end. You always know when the last hand will be, because the episode is almost over.
Poker is a great game, in some ways a metaphor for life. To be a good poker player, you'll need many of the same skills necessary for business. It can take awhile to learn how to play well, just like in business. You'll probably fail at first. You need to master many of the concepts, learn some basic odds (implied odds, effective odds, reverse implied odds, etc), and develop the experience necessary for intuition. You need to be good at gathering lots of information that you can synthesize and make a quick decision with.
I think I've rambled about poker enough for now.
septiembre 05, 2004
Branding of a different sort.
An interesting look at the Joe Gibbs brand:
When the Washington Redskins play at home this season, the sideline in front of the bench will not be the only piece of turf at FedEx Field controlled by Joe Gibbs. Joe Gibbs Racing has leased a 24-seat luxury suite at the stadium to entertain sponsors, fans and assorted VIPs to generate marketing opportunities for his successful NASCAR team.
The convergence of Gibbs's renewed role as football coach and his ongoing business interests outside the game has been generating a financial and marketing windfall for the Redskins, Gibbs's family and his NASCAR corporate sponsors since he announced in January that he was returning to the NFL after an 11-year absence.
The Redskins' coach is at the center of a marketing blitz this season for companies as diverse of Wix oil filters, Cintas uniforms, Interstate Batteries and Home Depot, each of which has ties to his family's NASCAR operation.
. . . .
Many NFL head coaches have cashed in on their fame by building side careers as entrepreneurs and corporate promoters. But the scale of Gibbs's side business interests in which he has parlayed his coaching success into a lucrative second career as a NASCAR team owner and corporate backer is unique. "When all is said and done, what Gibbs has done is build himself into one of the most successful personal brands in the [sports] business," said David M. Carter, a principal at the Sports Business Group, a consulting firm in Los Angeles. "Joe Gibbs is not just a NASCAR personality and not just a football personality, but he is one of the most well-branded individuals in this country's sports industry."
. . . .
Gibbs has been around business opportunities for decades, starting with several get-rich-quick schemes that Gibbs documented in his book, "Racing to Win." Gibbs lost hundreds of thousands of dollars in several investments from racquetball courts to real estate, dating from the 1970s. It took years for him to dig out from under those setbacks.
By all accounts, Gibbs Racing is a success. Gibbs started the NASCAR racing team in 1991 with help from Miller and funding from Gibbs's speeches for the Washington Speakers Bureau. His racing team is considered one of the best-run in NASCAR and returns several million dollars a year, according to J.D. Gibbs. The family plows most of the profits from Gibbs Racing back into the business, which includes 240 employees, two airplanes and a state-of-the-art race shop in North Carolina.
septiembre 04, 2004
Another link incentive
If you link to me, I'll send you a Gmail invite. I have quite a few to give away.
Please send me an email or leave a comment with your email address after you link to me.
Please send me an email or leave a comment with your email address after you link to me.
Arbitraging govt policies for billions
That's more or less what NextWave did.
I don't aspire to be that sort of entrepreneur, but it is an interesting story.
I don't aspire to be that sort of entrepreneur, but it is an interesting story.
septiembre 03, 2004
Link policy
If I were Tyler and Alex, I'd probably call this post "markets in everything: links."
Links are the commodity in the bloggers' market. We spend them, and hope to earn them in return. Just like in the real economy, there isn't a fixed amount of wealth in the blogosphere. So it is a positive sum game: we can create more blog wealth by linking more. This isn't a perfect analogy: bloggers trade links, but we really desire traffic, not links. So our commerce is transacted in a real commodity, but it is only a proxy for the commodity we really want: traffic.
As a new blogger, it can be tough to receive links and build traffic. As of right now, Technorati shows that I have one link from the Window Manager.
Of course, that's somewhat frustrating. I can't complain too much; I just started this blog and people want to see that a blog is going to last longer than 5 days before they link to it.
But still, if I'm going to blog, I'd like to have some links. So here's some options for my marketing plan:
2. This is a biz blog, so I'd prefer to stay away from politics. However, I'm willing to consider option 2.
3. I'm amenable to people emailing me asking for a link, but I am surprisingly lukewarm to the idea of emailing people asking to exchange links. At first I wasn't willing to consider this option, but now I think I will.
4. Obviously I should do this, but I'm hesitant to nominate myself. However, this is clearly an attractive option.
5. I don't know of any sites that always reciprocate links. James Joyner of Outsidethebeltway.com used to reciprocate, but apparently has ended the practice.
So, my link policy is this: I will gladly link to anyone who links to me. Anyone who does not reciprocate my link within about 30 days is unlikely to keep my link. This will hopefully create an incentive (to go back to my economic metaphor) to link to me. I'll try to email all of those people to whom I've linked and ask for a link before I delink them.
We'll see if it works.
Links are the commodity in the bloggers' market. We spend them, and hope to earn them in return. Just like in the real economy, there isn't a fixed amount of wealth in the blogosphere. So it is a positive sum game: we can create more blog wealth by linking more. This isn't a perfect analogy: bloggers trade links, but we really desire traffic, not links. So our commerce is transacted in a real commodity, but it is only a proxy for the commodity we really want: traffic.
As a new blogger, it can be tough to receive links and build traffic. As of right now, Technorati shows that I have one link from the Window Manager.
Of course, that's somewhat frustrating. I can't complain too much; I just started this blog and people want to see that a blog is going to last longer than 5 days before they link to it.
But still, if I'm going to blog, I'd like to have some links. So here's some options for my marketing plan:
1. Join a geographic link exchange, eg the Bear Flag League for Californians.1. I don't know of a league for Texas. Perhaps I could get one together.
2. Join a partisan link exchange, eg Blogs for Bush or the Liberal Coalition.
3. Email individual bloggers and ask for a reciprocal link.
4. Start submitting to the Carnival of the Capitalists.
5. Find sites that always reciprocate links.
2. This is a biz blog, so I'd prefer to stay away from politics. However, I'm willing to consider option 2.
3. I'm amenable to people emailing me asking for a link, but I am surprisingly lukewarm to the idea of emailing people asking to exchange links. At first I wasn't willing to consider this option, but now I think I will.
4. Obviously I should do this, but I'm hesitant to nominate myself. However, this is clearly an attractive option.
5. I don't know of any sites that always reciprocate links. James Joyner of Outsidethebeltway.com used to reciprocate, but apparently has ended the practice.
So, my link policy is this: I will gladly link to anyone who links to me. Anyone who does not reciprocate my link within about 30 days is unlikely to keep my link. This will hopefully create an incentive (to go back to my economic metaphor) to link to me. I'll try to email all of those people to whom I've linked and ask for a link before I delink them.
We'll see if it works.
septiembre 02, 2004
Instant messaging is the new email
It's surprised me how long it's taken for instant messaging (im) to catch on in the corporate world. According to the article, 4 in 10 adults use IM, but only 1 in 5 IM users use it at work. So, only about a 10% penetration rate?
Surprising it's taking so long. Among my generation, everyone uses IM. The only people I know that don't use IM are people that were spending too much time on IM, so they deleted the program.
Of course, the network isn't secure, and it can be an easy way for disgruntled employees to leak information out of the company. But it is a quick, easy and cheap way to communicate.
Surprising it's taking so long. Among my generation, everyone uses IM. The only people I know that don't use IM are people that were spending too much time on IM, so they deleted the program.
Of course, the network isn't secure, and it can be an easy way for disgruntled employees to leak information out of the company. But it is a quick, easy and cheap way to communicate.
Free internet access?
The Washington Post reports that Philadelphia is considering offering free wireless internet access across the entire city:
Perhaps it really is as easy as the article seems to suggest, but I have my doubts. It seems to me that the City of Philadelphia will find it much harder to manage this program, as government generally isn't the lowest cost provider of services. After all, it's a city, and that means the program will quickly be subject to patronage.
So I guess color me skeptical, though if the city manages to offer the service cheaply and efficiently in the long term, I imagine it would set a trend.
Forget finding an Internet cafe. For less than what it costs to build a small library, city officials believe they can turn all 135 square miles of Philadelphia into the world's largest wireless Internet hot spot.Interesting proposal. It reminds me of the time that Newt Gingrich suggested rethinking everything, and his example was giving the homeless a laptop.
The ambitious plan under discussion would involve placing thousands of small transmitters around the city, probably atop lampposts. Each of these wireless hot spots would be capable of communicating with the WiFi network cards that come standard with many computers.
Once complete, the $10 million network would deliver broadband Internet almost anywhere radio waves can travel, including neighborhoods where high-speed Internet access is now rare.
The city would likely offer the service either for free or at costs far lower than the $35 to $60 a month charged for broadband delivered over telephone and cable TV lines, said the city's chief information officer, Dianah Neff.
"If you're out on your front porch with a laptop, you could dial in, register at no charge, and be able to access a high-speed connection," Neff said.
But free, citywide Internet access would appear to pose a competitive threat to businesses such as phone carrier Verizon Communications Inc. and cable provider Comcast Corp. Both companies have invested heavily in upgrading their networks to provide high-speed Internet connections for a monthly fee.
Perhaps it really is as easy as the article seems to suggest, but I have my doubts. It seems to me that the City of Philadelphia will find it much harder to manage this program, as government generally isn't the lowest cost provider of services. After all, it's a city, and that means the program will quickly be subject to patronage.
So I guess color me skeptical, though if the city manages to offer the service cheaply and efficiently in the long term, I imagine it would set a trend.
septiembre 01, 2004
There's a market for healthy fast food
From the WashPost:
Americans are increasingly health conscious, and it seems to me that the current predominance of burger places in fast food is not sustainable. The question is what will be the new big thing. In some ways Subway has already started the evolution towards more healthy fast food, but I imagine the fast food landscape will look much different in 30 years.
When major food companies began widely using partially hydrogenated oils in the 1970s, they thought they were making their products more healthful. Consumer groups and regulators applauded the industry's switch from heavily saturated fats, such as lard and palm oil.The article was interesting. But I'm posting it because it spurred me to a different thought: the last business I would want to enter for the long term would be the burger industry.
But the evidence is growing that the trans fatty acids in partially hydrogenated oils are damaging to the heart too -- and more so than other kinds of fats. Once again, the food industry is looking for an alternative fat, only this time there doesn't seem to be an easy answer.
Though a few major players, such as Frito-Lay Inc. and Pepperidge Farm Inc., have already made the switch to other oils, industry officials said many other companies won't be able to make the change in time. They say that's because alternative oils have their own health problems, are too expensive, or can't be substituted without changing the taste, texture or shelf life of a product.
Americans are increasingly health conscious, and it seems to me that the current predominance of burger places in fast food is not sustainable. The question is what will be the new big thing. In some ways Subway has already started the evolution towards more healthy fast food, but I imagine the fast food landscape will look much different in 30 years.
Six Flags
Bill Gates and Washington Redskins owner are buying up shares in Six Flags, Inc, reports the Washington Post.
Readers should know, of course, that Six Flags refers to Texas, because of the "Six Flags Over Texas."
Investors in Six Flags Inc. have discovered that two entrepreneurs have plans for turning around the amusement park company, whose stock price has plunged as fast as its roller coasters.Gates now has about 11.5% of the company, and Snyder has almost 9%. According to the article, both are buying shares through their respective LLC investment companies. However, they are not doing it together. They have independently decided that Six Flags management needed a shakeup.
Daniel Snyder, the principal owner of the Washington Redskins, and Bill Gates, the founder and chairman of Microsoft Corp., have bought up big chunks of the 40-year-old purveyor of water parks, drive-through safaris and corndogs.
In a filing yesterday with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gates said he may seek a spot on the company's board. Snyder made a similar filing Monday. In the documents, both men sharply criticized Six Flags' management.
Readers should know, of course, that Six Flags refers to Texas, because of the "Six Flags Over Texas."
agosto 31, 2004
Dealing with partners
In my new venture, I have a partner. I don't know him very well, but I trust him about as much as I can trust someone I just recently met.
So far, I've done alot more of the work load than he has. Much of this is due to the nature of the work. Still, I've sorta assigned something relatively simple to him just recently, and no real results yet.
Now I'm not complaining yet. He seems committed -- it's something he's been kicking around for awhile. And he sorta quit his (good) job to do this yesterday.
I may just be impatient about this since it's the first real thing for him to do, plus we both have expressed our desire to hurry. So I guess that makes me ponder whether he has the commitment (he is a quasi-socialist after all) , and business relationships overall.
This venture was his idea and I feel lucky to get the opportunity. My partner had mentioned it to me in passing and I thought it was worth exploring. It mushroomed from there.
We're set to file our LLC papers soon, based on an LLC operating agreement template that I found on the web and modified. It may be somewhat risky to go into business with someone without having fully thought through and codified our responsibilities...but there's always time to revisit the issue later. Easier said than done though, I'm sure.
I suppose there is alot more I could write that would head off some inevitable (and logical) questions from any readers. But I'll leave it here.
So far, I've done alot more of the work load than he has. Much of this is due to the nature of the work. Still, I've sorta assigned something relatively simple to him just recently, and no real results yet.
Now I'm not complaining yet. He seems committed -- it's something he's been kicking around for awhile. And he sorta quit his (good) job to do this yesterday.
I may just be impatient about this since it's the first real thing for him to do, plus we both have expressed our desire to hurry. So I guess that makes me ponder whether he has the commitment (he is a quasi-socialist after all) , and business relationships overall.
This venture was his idea and I feel lucky to get the opportunity. My partner had mentioned it to me in passing and I thought it was worth exploring. It mushroomed from there.
We're set to file our LLC papers soon, based on an LLC operating agreement template that I found on the web and modified. It may be somewhat risky to go into business with someone without having fully thought through and codified our responsibilities...but there's always time to revisit the issue later. Easier said than done though, I'm sure.
I suppose there is alot more I could write that would head off some inevitable (and logical) questions from any readers. But I'll leave it here.
Tech and biz
Has anyone else ever thought it redundant to have a technology and a business section? Very little goes on in tech that isn't also business -- at least what gets reported. Sure some of the tech news is going to be government funding related
Even if you're only interested in business, it's a good idea to read the tech section. Technology changes so quickly these days that it's important to keep up with tech. Your competitors are reading about tech. They're trying to harness the power of tech evolution so that they can beat you.
Even if you're only interested in business, it's a good idea to read the tech section. Technology changes so quickly these days that it's important to keep up with tech. Your competitors are reading about tech. They're trying to harness the power of tech evolution so that they can beat you.
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